Matsuzawa Morning Report

Research evidence excerpt

Matsuzawa Morning Report

Global Markets Research

7 July 2026Matsuzawa Morning Report

Macro Strategy - Japan

Research AnalystsWhy foreign investors are buying cash equities

Strategybut selling futures

Naka Matsuzawa - NSC

30yr bonds showing little evidence of worries over supply–demand naka.matsuzawa@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 3864

• Foreigninvestorsbuyingcashequitieswhilesellingfutures,alsoincreasinglyselling

JPYasstocksgain

• StockselectionstilltrackingwiththeAIboom,butinvestorsalsolookworriedoverthe

riskofreflationarypolicymistakesbytheTakaichiadministration

• Littleevidenceofworriesoversupply–demandin30yrbonds,withtheriskpremium

overthe10yrstillconsistentlylow

• 10yryieldsheavilyinfluencedbyestimatesoftheneutralinterestrate,andtherefore

sensitivetoconcernsovertheTakaichiadministration’sreflationarypolicies

Today's Japanese market

In Japanese markets on Tuesday, this author expects solid performance in equities but

expects bonds to show limited upside (in overnight futures trading, bonds and equities

were up +12 sen and +¥290, respectively, over OSE). In overseas markets yesterday,

excess liquidity made a reappearance as the primary market driver; US tech stocks and

bitcoin rose, and industrial metals such as copper were also solid. In the US stock market,

there was an across-the-board rally in cyclicals such as capital goods and banks, which

had been weak the previous day. Within the tech space, semiconductor stocks, the Mag 7,

and software stocks all gained. US bonds initially sold off as stocks rose, but they started

trending upward again into the market close. Long-term bonds lagged somewhat, perhaps

because an auction is ahead, but they nevertheless richened against swaps. There is little

evidence that worries over supply–demand are getting any stronger.