India metals: 1QF Y27F preview

Research evidence excerpt

India metals: 1QF Y27F preview

Global Markets Research

7 July 2026India metals: 1QFY27F preview

EQUITY: METALS & MINING

EBITDA/t to improve on stronger realization Research Analysts

India Metals & Mining

We expect the steel players under our coverage to record an average INR1,000/t q-q Jashandeep Singh Chadha - NFASL

improvement in consolidated EBITDA/t; Lloyds Metals to report flat q-q EBITDA growth jashandeep.singhchadha@nomura.com

+91 22 40374124

We expect the India steel industry to report 5-6% y-y improvement in domestic volume in

1QFY27F. Among the stocks we cover, on standalone basis, we expect Jindal Steel (JINDALST

IN, Buy) to report the strongest volume growth of 13% y-y, followed by JSW Steel (JSTL IN, Buy)

at 6% y-y in 1QFY27F. Average domestic HRC (hot rolled coil) prices improved by INR4,800/t q-

q in 1Q (Fig.4), while average domestic rebar prices declined by INR90/t q-q (Fig.5). We

expect our coverage stocks to report ~INR4,800/t q-q improvement in realizations in 1Q. On the

cost front, we expect escalated raw material cost to partly offset benefit of realization

improvement; domestic iron ore prices increased INR700/t q-q while imported coking coal prices

increased USD25/t q-q in 1QFY27F (Fig.8). As a result, we expect ~INR1,000/t q-q

improvement in EBITDA/t on a consolidated basis for steel players under our coverage (Fig.1) in

1Q.

Tata Steel – India operations to report INR2,000/t increase in EBITDA/t, while Europe

operations to remain negative

We expect Tata Steel’s standalone business to report an 9% y-y volume increase in 1QFY27F,

while the European business will likely report a 7% y-y volume decline. On a consolidated basis,

volumes will likely increase to 7.3MT, up 3% y-y. On steel realizations, we expect Tata Steel to