U.S. Food: Quarterly Commodity Tracker and Chartbook: The Great Freight Fright - is it 2018 all over again?

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Food: Quarterly Commodity Tracker and Chartbook: The Great Freight Fright - is it 2018 all over again?

8 July 2026

U.S. Food

U.S. Food: Quarterly Commodity Tracker and Chartbook: The

Great Freight Fright - is it 2018 all over again?

In this installment of our quarterly commodity tracker and chartbook, we’ve compiled a Alexia Howard

+1 917 344 8453 collection of commodities that impact US packaged food companies. The note begins with

alexia.howard@bernsteinsg.com (1) company-specific tables for general flavor, protein, and ingredient commodities, (2) a

general packaging, freight, and industrial summary table, then (3) historical spot and/or

Cinnie Lin futures curves when available for relevant commodities.

+1 917 344 8567

cinnie.lin@bernsteinsg.com

We are highlighting the upcoming El Niño cycle, which has the potential to be

“super”. El Niño is a recurring weather pattern that warms the Pacific and disrupts global

weather and rainfall. This fall, we might see a “Super El Niño” cycle, which would elevate

global temperatures and make extreme weather events more likely. Although this will

affect all crops globally, we are most focused on coffee and cocoa here, especially as both

have already seen some price inflation in the past week or so as weather-related fears

mount. Cocoa prices remain lower than 2024 peaks (at ~$5.6k/ton as of market close on

7/7/2026 vs over ~$12k/ton in 2024), but have inflated significantly since the April - June

average price of ~$3.9k/ton. Similarly, coffee prices are also trending upwards - trading

around ~$331/lb vs the April - June average of $284/lb and a 2025 peak of $432/lb.

We are also calling out continued dairy protein inflation: Non-fat dry milk prices have

inflated +24% on a monthly YoY basis and +61% on a quarterly YoY basis.