U.S. Food: Thoughts on the reopening of the southern border to live cattle imports from Mexico

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Food: Thoughts on the reopening of the southern border to live cattle imports from Mexico

27 July 2026

U.S. Food

U.S. Food: Thoughts on the reopening of the southern border to

live cattle imports from Mexico

Over the weekend, the USDA announced the partial reopening of the southern Alexia Howard

+1 917 344 8453 border to live cattle imports (USDA Announces Phased Reopening of Southern Ports

alexia.howard@bernsteinsg.com for Livestock Trade | USDA). The press release identified certain ports in New Mexico

and Arizona (notably not in Texas, where the majority of the screwworm spread has been

Cinnie Lin located) for potential reopening at the end of August.

+1 917 344 8567

cinnie.lin@bernsteinsg.com

Some quick context: the domestic cattle herd had fallen to ~86.2m head at the

start of 2026, with non-dairy cattle accounting for ~76.6m head (Exhibit 3). This was

exacerbated by the stoppage of live cattle imports from Mexico in November 2024, which

had historically accounted for ~5% of live cattle processed in the US (Exhibit 4).1 From the

start of 2024 to 2026, the domestic cattle herd size has fallen ~1m head.

The USDA press released specified that the Douglas, AZ port is slated to reopen

on August 24th, which could then potentially be followed by the Santa Teresa, NM

and Columbus, NM ports. For reference, in 2024 (prior to the border closure), ~175k

cattle crossed the Douglas, AZ port, accounting for ~16% of live cattle imports from

Mexico (Exhibit 5). The Santa Teresa, NM and Columbus, NM ports saw ~446k (~40% of

Mexican live cattle imports) and ~121k (~11% of Mexican live cattle imports) pass through,

respectively.

We think that this could help reduce consumer prices a bit at the margin, but it's