U.S. Consumer Strategy: When will I be loved? Resurgence of tech & spiking freight keep Consumer performance subdued

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Consumer Strategy: When will I be loved? Resurgence of tech & spiking freight keep Consumer performance subdued

20 July 2026

U.S. Consumer Strategy and Quantitative Research

U.S. Consumer Strategy: When will I be loved? Resurgence of

tech & spiking freight keep Consumer performance subdued

U.S. Consumer stocks across both Discretionary and Staples sectors have Alexia Howard

+1 917 344 8453 underperformed the market over the past quarter. This may be because the tech

alexia.howard@bernsteinsg.com sector, which was flattish in the first quarter, picked up strongly over the past 3 months,

and Consumer stocks became a source of funds for this rally. So now we have the U.S.

Richard J. Clarke, FCA Consumer Discretionary space sitting at the lowest crowding level that we have seen in

+44 20 7676 6850

richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com over 25 years, which could make for some interesting investment opportunities.

Fundamentally, and with a disconcerting feeling of déjà vu, we worry that the recent Callum Elliott, CFA, ACA

+44 20 7676 7183 spike in U.S. trucking rates could pressure anything with a physical supply chain in

callum.elliott@bernsteinsg.com the U.S.: While larger companies are likely to enjoy some protection from forward contracts

for the next 6 - 9 months, we may find that smaller players have to absorb the blows from

Danilo Gargiulo rising freight prices in the nearer term. Fortunately, this likely means that Hotels, Resorts +1 917 344 8475

danilo.gargiulo@bernsteinsg.com and Cruise Lines will hang in somewhat better than other sectors.

Zhihan Ma, CFA And speaking of Hotels, we rather suspect that the World Cup could generate some

+1 917 344 8303 surprising earnings curveballs this quarter: As a music venue owner in upstate New