JPY Intraday Comment

Research evidence excerpt

JPY Intraday Comment

Global Markets Research

7 July 2026JPY Intraday Comment

Foreign Exchange - Global

Research Analysts

JPY stable, JGBs volatile Global FX Strategy

Yujiro Goto - NSC

The government likely needs to provide clear guidance on fiscal policy yujiro.goto@nomura.com

market implications to restore investor demand for long-term JGBs +81 3 6703 1120

Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc

• USD/JPY has traded sideways around 162, with the pair facing upward pressure yusuke.miyairi@nomura.com

owing to the market’s concerns about Japan’s fiscal and monetary policy, while the +44 (0) 20 7102 4145

MOF’s FX policy is limiting the pair’s rise.

Tomoki Hideshima - NSC

• Today’s strong 30-year JGB auction failed to push yields lower across the JGB curve, tomoki.hideshima@nomura.com

and the government likely needs to provide clear guidance on fiscal policy market +81 3 6703 1427

implications to restore investor demand for long-term JGBs. Yuki Kodera - NSC

yuki.kodera@nomura.com • Monthly wage growth for May slowed, but this was likely dragged down by fewer

+81 3 6703 1281

working hours and does not suggest wage hike momentum is actually softening. We

thus think today’s outcome won’t discourage the BOJ from rate hiking.

Fig. 1: Bid-to-cover ratio in 30-year JGB auction Fig. 2: Share of JGB holdings by type of investor

Note: The red line shows the latest result on 7 July 2026. Source: Macrobond, BOJ, Nomura

Source: Macrobond, Bloomberg, Nomura

Trading sideways around 162, with USD/JPY facing two forces

USD/JPY continues to trade sideways around the 162 level. Today, a sell-off in

semiconductor-related stocks pushing the Nikkei 225 down 2.1% and KOSPI 4.5% lower,

briefly driving JPY stronger, as the market likely unwound its short JPY positions.