First Insights: France: Rearranging the deckchairs in the Matignon

Research evidence excerpt

First Insights: France: Rearranging the deckchairs in the Matignon

Global Markets Research

7 July 2026First Insights

Economics - Global

Research Analysts

France: Rearranging the deckchairs in the Matignon European Economics

Andrzej Szczepaniak - NIplc

• The French Appeals Court has ruled that Marine Le Pen is eligible to stand as the andrzej.szczepaniak@nomura.com

National Rally (RN) candidate in the April 2027 presidential election, though she would +44 (0) 20 7102 3167

be required to wear an electronic ankle bracelet. Le Pen previously said she would not George Buckley - NIplc

run under such conditions, and would instead pass the baton to Jordan Bardella. It george.buckley@nomura.com

remains to be seen what Le Pen will decide. +44 (0) 20 7102 1800

Josie Anderson - NIplc • We believe RN will reach the second stage of the presidential race irrespective of the

josie.anderson@nomura.com

candidate. What matters more in determining whether RN wins the presidential +44 (0) 20 7102 4284

election or not is who the opposing candidate is in the second stage.

• However, we expect continued political gridlock even following the snap legislative

elections that we believe will be called by the new president, whoever that is. France

will continue to find itself at a political impasse and be unable to undertake the

structural reforms necessary to boost growth and meaningfully reduce its primary

deficit.

• Hence, we remain structurally bearish on France (versus Germany) relative to Italy

and Spain. Moreover, we continue to believe OAT-BTP spreads should trade positive

and likely wider than current levels.

Fig. 1: Opinion polls suggest National Rally could win in 2027 Fig. 2: Philippe is best placed to beat National Rally

Note: 2017 and 2022 are actual vote shares.