Agency MBS Special Topics: June prepayment commentary

Research evidence excerpt

Agency MBS Special Topics: June prepayment commentary

Global Markets Research

7 July 2026Agency MBS Special Topics

Securitized Products - North America

Research Analysts

June prepayment commentary US Securitized Products

Rohit Sinha - NSI

Save the date: Rohit.Sinha@nomura.com

Nomura’s Securitized Products and US economics research teams will host a Mid-Year +1 212 298 4905

outlook call on 14 July at 3:00PM EST. Please register here for the call. Shreya Pal - NSI

Aggregate prepays for 30yr conventionals increased by 1-2% in June, driven by one shreya.pal1@nomura.com

additional day count and positive housing seasonals, partly offset by a 15bp backup in + 1 212 667 2183

mortgage rates. Aggregate prepays for G2 Multis decreased by 7%, peak prepays were Vivek Chauhan - NSI

generally lower or unchanged for most coupons and post-peak prepays were lower for vivek.chauhan@nomura.com

5.0s-7.0s. + 1 212 667 2290

Daivaksh Patel - NSIIn July, we expect aggregate prepays to be largely unchanged in comparison to June, as daivaksh.patel@nomura.com

one additional day count should offset the impact of negative housing seasonals. After +1 212 667 9238

adjusting for daycount changes, turnover prepays have decreased by 9-10% in July vs

June since 2022.

Issuance: Monthly gross/net issuance decreased to $119bn/$20bn in June from

$122bn/$23bn in May. Ginnie net issuance totaled $20bn and conventional net issuance

totaled $0.5bn in June. Ginnie continues to drive net issuance in 2026 YTD, totaling $83bn

vs -$2bn for conventionals. Hybrid ARM issuance decreased to $4.2bn in June from

$5.2bn in May.

Fig. 1: Prepay changes across products Fig. 2: Month-over-month change in prepays by coupon

Factor months

M-o-M

Jun-26 Jul-26 change

Fannie 30yr 8.1 8.3 2%

Freddie 30yr 8.5 8.6 1%