1QFY27F preview: Mixed quarter

Research evidence excerpt

1QFY27F preview: Mixed quarter

Global Markets Research

7 July 2026India oil & gas

EQUITY: OIL & GAS/CHEMICALS

1QFY27F preview: Mixed quarter Research Analysts

India Oil & Gas/Chemicals

Upstream strong on high oil prices; OMCs could report deep Bineet Banka, CFA - NFASL

bineet.banka@nomura.comlosses; likely soft 1Q from Reliance

+91(22)4037 4044

RIL: Soft O2C and Retail, while Jio likely remained steady

• We estimate 1QFY27F consolidated EBITDA at INR449bn for RIL (RELIANCE IN,

Buy), up ~2% q-q, as a one-month planned turnaround of its domestic refinery unit may

impact O2C earnings, while Retail may see continued margin pressure. Telecom should

report steady numbers after a seasonally soft 4Q.

• We estimate O2C EBITDA at INR150bn for 1QFY27F, up 3% q-q. The refinery

turnaround may more than offset strong refining margins, and higher petchem prices.

1QFY27 O2C business continued to be impacted by increased refinery LPG output

according to government guidance, fuel retailing loss, and K-G gas being diverted to other

sectors.

• For the upstream segment, we estimate 1QFY27F EBITDA at INR39bn, down 7% q-q due

to a decline in production and softer gas ASP from lower HPHT ceiling price announced

by the government.

• We estimate Jio Platform’s (unlisted) EBITDA at INR209bn, up 4% q-q, underpinned by: (1)

a steady increase in end-of-period subscriber base by 8mn to 532mn subscribers in

1QFY27F; and (2) modestly higher ARPU of INR217/month (vs INR214/month in 4QFY26).

• Growth for Reliance Retail (unlisted) likely improved slightly in 1QFY27F; we estimate

retail revenue of INR941bn (up 12% y-y) and EBITDA of INR66bn (up 3% y-y).

• Going forward, with government lifting the restriction on using refinery off-gas as