Japan equity memo: Points to watch ahead of Q1 results announcements at Japanese companies

Research evidence excerpt

Japan equity memo: Points to watch ahead of Q1 results announcements at Japanese companies

Japan equity memo: Points to watch ahead of Q1 Global Markets Research

results announcements at Japanese companies 7 July 2026

EQUITY: JAPAN STRATEGY

Consensus forecasts, historical patterns, and recent share Research Analysts

price reactions Macro strategy

Tomochika Kitaoka - NSC

Mainly focusing on cost pass-throughs, also on knock-on effects of AI and tomochika.kitaoka@nomura.com

semiconductor economy, forex assumptions, and US tariff refunds +81 3 6703 1815

Naoya Fuji - NSC

Consensus forecasts call for recurring profit growth of 26% y-y in FY26 Q1, 158% naoya.fuji@nomura.com

for AI and semiconductors +81 3 6703 1245

Consensus forecasts call for recurring profit growth of 26% y-y for companies with

February or March year-ends in FY26 Q1 (Apr–Jun or Mar–May), sustaining the double-

digit growth (25%) seen in FY25 Q4 (Figure1). They also call for recurring profit growth of

158% y-y in Q1 at AI and semiconductor companies, testifying to strong expectations (

Figure2). Sectors with prospective double-digit recurring profit growth in Q1 include

nonferrous metals, electrical appliances, banks, services, wholesale trade, chemicals, and

pulp & paper (Figure3).

Fig. 1: Consensus quarterly earnings Fig. 2: Consensus quarterly earnings

forecasts for listed Japanese forecasts for AI and semiconductor

companies companies

Note: Consensus is QUICK consensus. Data as of 6 Note: AI and semiconductor-related stocks are

July 2026. Ajinomoto, Ibiden, Niterra, Mitsui Kinzoku, Furukawa

Source: Nomura, based on QUICK data Electric, Sumitomo Electric Industries, Fujikura, Disco,

SMC, Yaskawa Electric, Kokusai Electric, TDK, Hirose

Electric, Advantest, Keyence, Fanuc, Rohm, Kyocera,