US Daily Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Commentary

Global Markets Research

7 July 2026US Daily Commentary

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

Review & Preview North America Economics

Review Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

Tradebalance: The trade deficit widened to $77.6bn in May (Nomura: $78.5bn, +1 212 667 9347

Consensus: $78.4bn), from a revised $54.6bn in April. Import growth picked up, while Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

exports fell in the month. jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9637On exports, petroleum and related products remained solid, but capital goods exports fell,

led by softer tech-related shipments. On the import side, capital goods ex autos continued Ruchir Sharma - NSI

to rise broadly (Fig.1). Overall, our Q2 GDP tracking estimate remained unchanged at ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

+1 212 667 91862.3% q-o-q ar.

ADPprivateemployment: ADP data suggest private payrolls rose an average of 21k per

week in the four-week period ending 20 June from 24.25k previously. Data suggest that

employment gains have remained robust, but eased from their May peak.

NYFedSurveyofConsumerExpectations(SCE): NY Fed SCE suggests consumer

inflation expectations rose slightly in June across the one- and three-year horizons,

reaching multiyear highs. This is in contrast to other consumer surveys that showed

expectations ticking down. Five-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged.

The rise in near-term inflation expectations is especially concerning since the US-Iran

ceasefire occurred during the survey period. One-year-ahead gas price expectations fell

this month to their lowest level since August 2022.

Labor market details were constructive. The perceived probability of job loss over the next

12 months declined, driven by low-income households, while expectations for a higher