Colombia: A small downside surprise does little to alter the inflation outlook

Research evidence excerpt

Colombia: A small downside surprise does little to alter the inflation outlook

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

07 July 2026

Colombia

A small downside surprise does little to alter the inflation

outlook

Economic and Policy Research

Diego W. Pereira

(1-212) 834-4321

diego.w.pereira@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• June’s inflation came in a tad below our expectations, yet the 12-month Juan(57 601)Goldin869 8746

print inched higher to 6.14%oya juan.goldin@jpmchase.com

• Underlying inflation also surprised to the downside, though it remains BANCO J.P. MORGAN COLOMBIA S.A

elevated at 5.93%oya

• Our suite of core CPI metrics still point to persistent pressures

• We expect year-end headline (core) CPI at 6.5%oya (6.2%oya)

• Inflation is likely to remain sticky, staying above the target ceiling through

next year

• The baseline assumes El Niño related contribution for about 1.5%-pt,

though risks are for a stronger impact

June inflation came in slightly below our expectations, but both headline and core

measures continued to accelerate on an annual basis, remaining well above the upper

bound of the central bank’s target range. The composition of the data was somewhat

more encouraging than the headline print suggests, as core inflation, particularly core

services, surprised modestly to the downside. Even so, underlying inflation dynamics

remain persistent, pointing not only to further near-term upside but also to

increasingly entrenched price pressures. We maintain the year-end headline CPI

forecast at 6.5%oya, and project core CPI to rise to 6.2%oya by then. Annual inflation

is likely to remain above the target ceiling throughout next year, unless fiscal and

income policies become more consistent with the disinflation process. Risks remain