Retail: Macro Monthly (July 2026): Update on factors including incomes, prices, consumer sentiment, and sector investment stance

Research evidence excerpt

Retail: Macro Monthly (July 2026): Update on factors including incomes, prices, consumer sentiment, and sector investment stance

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

08 July 2026

Retail: Macro Monthly (July 2026)

Update on factors including incomes, prices, consumer

sentiment, and sector investment stance

• Subsectors and stocks to watch: We maintain our preference rankings for Japan Equity Research

covered stocks over the next three to six months (see Figure 2 for details).

Retail

AC • Real wages rise for fifth straight month: Figure 3 shows trends in total Dairo Murata

cash earnings and real wages. Total cash earnings increased 3.2% YoY in (81-3) 6736 8620

May 2026. This marked the 53rd straight month of YoY growth, partly due dairo.murata@jpmorgan.com

to corporate wage hikes marking the new fiscal year. This growth exceeded Ami Terai AC

the past six-month average of 2.8% (range 1.7–3.6%). Within the total, (81-3) 6736-8660

scheduled cash earnings (base pay) rose 3.0% YoY, and part-time ami.terai@jpmorgan.com

employee pay grew 4.9%. Further, special remuneration such as bonuses Kazuha Matsuo

rose 5.2% YoY. (81-3) 6736-8614

kazuha.matsuo@jpmorgan.com

• As a result, real wages adjusted for inflation rose 1.4% YoY in May, JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

marking the fifth straight month of growth. The Ministry of Health, Labour

and Welfare commented that solid growth in scheduled cash earnings, due

in part to the spring wage negotiations, and stable inflation led to growth

in real wages. However, it explained that it will continue to closely watch

the impact of the Middle East conflict on future real wages and prices.

• Price trends: The consumer price index rose 1.5% YoY in May (Figure 4).

Within the total, energy prices fell 1.1% YoY.