Elis: Without the Mexican healthcare contract issues, FY guidance would likely have been raised

Research evidence excerpt

Elis: Without the Mexican healthcare contract issues, FY guidance would likely have been raised

7 July 2026

Elis: Without the Mexican healthcare contract issues, FY guidance

would likely have been raised

Sabrina Blanc +33 1 42 13 47 32 sabrina.blanc@bernsteinsg.com

We regularly hold calls with companies, making sure we are up-to-date with their latest communications. We recently caught up with Elis, in the

lead up to their 1H26 reporting, and provide an update of the key themes on the company below.

Context by area

• Western Europe (France, UK, Scandinavia) – the environment remains challenging and management expects 1H organic growth in

line with the1Q performance, at close to 2%.

• Central & Southern Europe. Elis expects organic growth to have improved in 1H, with c.4% for Central Europe and c.6% for Southern

Europe.

• In Latam, however, Elis might be affected by a set of healthcare contracts in Mexico. The company lost part of a large public healthcare

contract after refusing to lower prices during renegotiation. The business was transferred to other providers, but they struggled to deliver.

Therefore, the contracts came back into the hands of Elis, but only in part.

The impact should be mainly visible from late 2Q to 4Q through lower volumes. The full contract value was around €35m (0.7% of group

revenues). Management expects an impact of around €5m this year (10bp), but estimates the maximum risk at around €15m (15bp) if Elis

does not recover more of the volumes.

• However, OSG is set to pick up in 2H. With many new contracts signed and numerous price increases – temporary fuel price increases

in Europe and Brazil – management thinks it is possible that the full-year impact could be limited to 5bp. The group is now guiding to