US Agency MBS: June Prepayment Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

US Agency MBS: June Prepayment Commentary

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07 Jul 2026 19:36:51 ET │ 21 pages

US Agency MBS

June Prepayment Commentary

CITI'S TAKE

Wei Guan AC

30-year Fannie speeds increased by 2% in June, and 30-year Freddie +1-212-723-2682

speeds increased by 1%. Lower and belly coupons saw speeds pick up, wei.guan@citi.com

suggesting strong turnover. In 30-year G2, voluntary speeds declined by

9%, and peak speeds decreased across 5.0s-6.5s. Buyout speeds picked Susan Wang AC

up by 6% and were relatively balanced across servicers. +1-212-723-5744

susan.wang@citi.com

Gross Issuance at $120bn and Net Issuance at $21bn — In June, gross issuance

With thanks todeclined slightly from $123bn to $120bn. Freddie net issuance decreased to $2bn

Liza Ampongwhile Fannie net issuance remained at -$2bn. Ginnie net issuance increased to

$20bn. Cumulative net issuance totaled $87bn in 1H’2026. Based on the paydowns,

we expect a $18bn decrease in the Fed’s MBS holdings in the next cycle.

Peak Speeds Declined in 5.0s and 6.0s; Increased in 5.5s and 6.5s — Peak speeds

in FN 5.0s declined modestly from 9 CPR to 8 CPR and shifted from 13 WALA to 12

WALA. Peak speeds in FN 5.5s rose from 14 CPR at 2 WALA to 15 CPR at 1 WALA. FN

6.0s peak speeds fell from 29 CPR at 1 WALA to 24 CPR at 5 WALA. Peak speeds in

FN 6.5s increased from 49 CPR to 57 CPR, while shifted from 5 WALA to 6 WALA.

Second Home and TX Offered Extension Protection; FL Offered Call Protection —

In lower coupons, Second Home continued to offer extension protection and it

printed noticeably faster than other stories in 2022 3.0s. FL showed extension

protection in 2022 2.5s, while it printed marginally slower than non-spec in 3.0s.

HiLTV and LowFICO printed slower than non-spec in both coupons, even slower

than NY in 2.5s.