BAWAG Group: Increasing forecasts on higher NII, 1H CET1 ratio on track to reach c.17% pre transaction

Research evidence excerpt

BAWAG Group: Increasing forecasts on higher NII, 1H CET1 ratio on track to reach c.17% pre transaction

Amit Ranjan AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-4576 08 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

amit.x.ranjan@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

BAWAG is one of Austria’s oldest and largest banking groups

and, following a remarkable transformation over the past

decade, has become one of the most efficient and profitable

banks in Europe. BAWAG's offer for PTSB is a transformative

acquisition in our view and while a deal of this size, if approved,

comes with significant execution risks, BAWAG management’s

strong track record in prior acquisitions provides support to the

shares near-term as we await execution on steps around self-

funding the transaction as well as further quantitative details on

YTD 1m 3m 12m synergies. What is also reassuring is the standalone earnings

Abs 39.2% 19.0% 36.7% 67.4% outlook, with a through-the-cycle C/I ratio target of <33%, for

Company Data which we assume a higher P/E multiple given BAWAG

Shares O/S (mn) 77 management’s strong track record of delivery in prior

52-week range (€) 180.20-101.01 acquisitions. We remain OW.

Market cap ($ mn) 15,730.07

Exchange rate 0.87 Valuation

Free float (%) 99.9% Our Dec-27 price target of €190 is derived using the SOP

3M ADV (mn) 0.16

3M ADV ($ mn) 28.3 Valuation method based on 2028E earnings.

Volatility (90 Day) 33

Index -

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 10|2|0 Performance Drivers

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

€ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E

Financial Estimates

Net interest income 1,837 1,963 2,075 2,160

Non interest income 379 407 436 455

Operating expenses (838) (790) (770) (776)

Adj. PPOP 1,378 1,580 1,741 1,839

Provision for loan losses (228) (258) (248) (259)