Ocado H126 Preview - underlying CF inflection likely skewed to H2; SBA partnership progress remains the key catalyst

Research evidence excerpt

Ocado H126 Preview - underlying CF inflection likely skewed to H2; SBA partnership progress remains the key catalyst

C A Z E N O V E Europe Equity Research

08 July 2026

Ocado

H126 Preview - underlying CF inflection likely skewed Overweight

to H2; SBA partnership progress remains the key OCDO.L, OCDO LN

catalyst Price (07 Jul 26):176p

Price Target (Nov-27):290p

We preview our Ocado estimates ahead of the company’s H126 results on July European Internet

AC16th, forecasting +2.4% YoY revenue growth as we expect steady growth in the Marcus Diebel

Logistics business (+9% YoY) to be partially offset by declines in Tech (44-20) 7742-4447

Solutions due to the closure of select Kroger and Sobeys CFCs. Further, while marcus.diebel@jpmorgan.com

we continue to forecast FCF break-even to be reached at the end of this year, we J.P. Morgan Securities plc

argue FCF generation will be bumpy and largely H2-weighted given working Lara Simpson

capital effects and the timing of cost efficiencies. We forecast underlying CF (44-20) 7134-3637

lara.simpson@jpmorgan.com

(company definition) of £-110m for H1 and £-174m for FY26 (ahead of company J.P. Morgan Securities plc

guidance for a c.£200m cash outflow in FY26) and Ocado turning underlying cash

Carmen Graves

flow positive in 2027 (on a FY basis, JPMe +£7.5m). However, the key focus of (44-20) 3493 0506

the results will be on any announcements on the progress on securing a partner to carmen.graves@jpmorgan.com

pilot new clients for Ocado’s SBA offering. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Thyagarajan J

• H126 Expectations. For H1, we expect revenue growth for the Logistics (91-22) 6157-5005

segment of +9% YoY to £432m driven by rising order volumes in Ocado Retail thyagarajan.j@jpmchase.com

and an Adj. EBITDA of £21m (4.8% margin).