Repsol: 2Q TS - Effective capture of high-end refining

Research evidence excerpt

Repsol: 2Q TS - Effective capture of high-end refining

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

08 July 2026

Repsol Neutral

REP.MC, REP SM

2Q TS - Effective capture of high-end refining Price (07 Jul 26):€22.16

Price Target (Jun-27):€22.50

Our Take - Solid. Last week’s JPM 2Q Tactical Views report positioned refining European Oil & Gas

ACexposure as well placed through the reporting season owing to elevated quarterly Matthew Lofting, CFA

margins and a recent resurgence in indicators. The latter has been supported by (44-20) 7134-6301

tight stocks, supply constraints (Russian outages as well as Middle East) and a matthew.lofting@jpmorgan.com

parachute benefit vs. oil price de-escalation. We highlighted N-rated Repsol as Tianyu Wu

possessing upper quartile exposure and its 2Q trading statement after market close (44-20) 3493-1281

Monday indicated solid capture of these dynamics. 1) A refining indicator of $14/ tianyu.wu@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

bbl compares to 1Q $10.9 and JPMe $17. We continue to expect a premium over-

and-above this of up to $10/bbl owing to Repsol’s high middle distillate yield and Specialist Sales contact details:

feedstock flexibility. This implies a top-end of history mid-20s $/bbl 2Q realisation

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales -

and we understand exit-rate margins remain elevated; 2) Elsewhere in the European Energy

Industrial division, the chems indicator margin more than tripled to >€550/t. This (44-20) 7134-1356

is directionally consistent with the readthrough from Shell’s TS but above our prior ian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

assumption, suggesting the uplift could more meaningfully offset (lower) trading

seasonally; 3) We remind of 1Q CC guidance that negative time-lag effects (incl.

jet fuel pricing) should catch-up during 2Q.