Global LNG Analyzer: Asia leads, Europe to catch up

Research evidence excerpt

Global LNG Analyzer: Asia leads, Europe to catch up

rather than Europe, as the European share in US spot LNG Europe/Med Asia/RoW (rhs)

imports dropped to nearly 50% in June, compared to 65% in June-2025. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities

Research

• Our spot LNG model underscores the same rebalancing pattern. Overall, Based on loading dates, in transit volumes based on current

estimated Asian spot LNG imports reached a new high of 290 Mcm/day in location of the vessels.

June, at the expense of European destinations, where spot volumes fell to 192

Mcm/day. This compares with 215 Mcm/day in June 2025, when NWE storage

stood at 43%, versus 30% in 2026 (both as of June 1). Despite the post-ceasefire

decline in spot prices, the core market fundamentals remain broadly unchanged

as the JKM premium is proving resilient and continuing to pull spot cargoes

toward Asia, while Europe’s storage trajectory continues to lag.

• The recovery in demand was made possible by stronger-than-expected

global LNG supply. The upside was led by the US, and particularly Sabine Contents

Pass, where feedgas and loading profiles showed little evidence of the usual 3Q balance remains structurally tight 3

June seasonal maintenance. We estimate Sabine Pass exports were 31 Mcm/ Price Forecasts 10

day higher in June, essentially skipping the seasonal maintenance, while total NWE + UK S&D Balance 10

US LNG exports averaged 505 Mcm/day (+31% YoY). As a result, global LNG LNG supply and shipping tracker 12

Global LNG balances 15

exports declined by only 15 Mcm/day YoY in June, a much smaller contraction LNG trade matrix 18

than the roughly 100 Mcm/day decline seen in April–May and the 150 Mcm/ Export/import capacity utilization rates 20

day decline in March.