JPM | Energy: Expect Divergences Between Oil, Gas & Coal

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | Energy: Expect Divergences Between Oil, Gas & Coal

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

08 July 2026

Anmol Mehta

+852 2800 8896

anmol.mehta@jpmorgan.com

Good morning - Brent jumped +3% above $74/bbl as US forces “have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran

to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping,” US Central Command said in a social-media post.

Explosions were heard on an island close to the strait, Iranian news agency Mehr reported. In addition to the renewed fighting, the

US Treasury revoked a sanctions waiver that had allowed Tehran to sell oil globally, reversing course on a key element of the

interim peace deal agreed with the Islamic Republic. Three ships were attacked in the waterway, including a gas carrier and a

Saudi oil tanker.

The XLE saw its largest 1 day inflows since January (higher than any period through the conflict) but the bigger moves came in

Gas/LNG prices: TTF +9% to EUR 48/mmbtu and LNG +9% to $18/mmbtu. The two now up 80% & 90% ytd respectively –

which are well above where people thought you would be post a US/Iran MOU.

What makes the gas/LNG story resilient is that European Gas inventories are only tracking at 50% of capacity – well below

the 5 year average of 71% at this time of the year. There is a much more urgent need to build gas inventories compared to crude

oil inventories ahead of winter given cooling demand – which is what drives our EUR 55/MWh target for Q3, and 60EUR/MWh

target for Q4. (+15 and +25% higher from current levels).

This bodes quite nicely for Asia’s largest LNG play Woodside– which is trading at a 8.45% dividend yield & proffers well for

Santos too (at a 5% dividend yield).