US Treasury Market Daily: June STRIPS update and 10-year auction preview

Research evidence excerpt

US Treasury Market Daily: June STRIPS update and 10-year auction preview

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

07 July 2026

US Treasury Market Daily

June STRIPS update and 10-year auction preview

Fixed Income Strategy

Jay Barry AC

(1-212) 834-4951

john.f.barry@jpmorgan.com

Jason Hunter AC

• Yields rose 4-5bp across the curve, in a move to global yields aided by (1-212)jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com270-0034

headlines suggesting the potential for reescalation in the Strait of Hormuz,

Harry Downie alongside some more hawkish commentary from Fed President Williams

(1-212) 270-9500

• Treasury will auction $39bn reopened 10-year notes at 1pm tomorrow, harry.j.downie@jpmorgan.com

unchanged in size from the last reopening in June. Given unattractive Liam L Wash

valuations and a less supportive macro backdrop, we think tomorrow’s auction (1-212) 834-5230

likely requires more of a concession in order to be digested smoothly liam.wash@jpmchase.com

Amanda Berke

• Treasury released the MSPD for June this afternoon, showing P-STRIPS (1-212) 834-5739

outstanding rose by $2.7bn over the month, concentrated primarily at the tip of amanda.berke@jpmorgan.com

the curve. This represents a return to a lighter pace after a heavy month of J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

activity in May; we continue to expect LDI demand for Treasuries will

continue at a more muted pace this year

• The 10-year note whipsaws back to higher yields after the late-Jun push

through short-term resistance in the 4.40% area failed to produce bullish follow

through. Nearby support rests at 4.56-4.58%. We maintain a neutral technical

bias as the chart lacks a clear setup

Statistics for various on-the-run Treasury yields, curve spreads, and TIPS

breakevens

1d chg WTD chg QTD chg YTD chg