US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | AFTERNOON BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | AFTERNOON BRIEFING

• US EARNINGS TOMORROW: AEHR

• GLOBAL MACRO DATA TOMORROW: (United Kingdom) RICS House Price Balance at

7.01pm ET. (Japan) Money Stock M2 and Money Stock M3 at 7.50pm ET. (China) CPI/PPI

at 9.30pm ET. (China) Money Supply M2 at TBA ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

Global AI selloff and the Middle East escalation were the two main themes of today as July de-grossing

and concerns over positioning remains the risks for a potential pullback in momentum (See the top

bullets for market summary). Tomorrow, the key macro event will be the FOMC Minutes, especially

given Warsh’s approach of avoiding forward guidance and the upside surprise in dots. See Feroli’s

preview below.

FEROLI’S THOUGHTS ON FOMC MINUTES TMRW

• Tomorrow’s scheduled release of the minutes to the June 16-17 FOMC meeting will be the first

minutes in the Warsh era of diminished communications. The revamp of the last post-meeting

statement raises the specter of a similar revamp to the minutes. This is a risk, but we see a few

factors that could limit how much change we can expect to see. The background to the minutes

is an important place to start. After the 1966 Freedom of Information Act, the Committee decided

that a lagged publication of meeting minutes would appropriately align with the spirit of that law.

Similarly, Fed chairs from Bernanke onward have emphasized that an important rationale for

transparent Fed communications is democratic accountability. Even if Warsh is not similarly

minded, the minutes are produced with significant input from the committee.

• The first draft of the minutes is prepared by the staff. In a strict legal sense, the Board staff report