Daily Economic Briefing: Japanese consumers perking up

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: Japanese consumers perking up

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

07 July 2026

Daily Economic Briefing

Japanese consumers perking up

Economic and Policy Research

Nora Szentivanyi

(44-20) 7134-7544

nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• While we continue to anticipate a midyear cooling in global consumption, Alex(1-212)Gallin270-5492

incoming news is tilting spending forecasts higher. On the heels of recent alex.gallin@jpmorgan.com

upward revisions to 2Q26 projections for the US and Euro area, Japan’s BoJ JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

real Consumption Activity Index (CAI) rose 0.6%m/m in May and we have Maia Crook

raised our 2Q consumer spending forecast to 2.5%ar from 1.5%. This change (1-212) 622-8435

also prompted an upward revision to 2Q GDP growth to 1.3% from 0.8%. maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Real personal consumption expenditures Joseph Lupton

%2q, ar; shaded area is J.P. Morgan fcst (1-212) 834-5735

4 joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

US JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

2 Euro area

-1 Japan

-2

2023 2024 2025 2026

Source: BEA, ESRI, Eurostat, J.P. Morgan

• The latest wage and consumption data from Japan reinforce the upturn in

spending. The May employers’ survey showed wages rising 3.2%oya––the

fourth straight month above 3%––with underlying wage momentum

remaining firm and part-time hourly wage gains accelerating. The final results

of this year’s Shunto wage negotiations were also strong (5.0% for overall

wages; 3.5% base pay) and broad-based, including for SMEs, which reinforces

the picture of resilience in real incomes and consumption.

• As incoming June CPI reports confirm a pullback in headline inflation, led by

lower energy prices, the bar for rate hikes across EM is rising.