Citi Research Global Macro Strategy: Open Trade Ideas: A round-up of Citi Research’s FICC open trade ideas at 6-Jul-2026

Research evidence excerpt

Citi Research Global Macro Strategy: Open Trade Ideas: A round-up of Citi Research’s FICC open trade ideas at 6-Jul-2026

Citi Research Open Trade Ideas at 6-Jul-26

Commodities

Trade Details Opened By Contact Info Open Date Current Price and Date and Time of Link to Rationale and Risk Discussion

Pricing

We remain tactically bullish on sugar and keep our price target of $0.17/lb in 3 months and Arkady Gevorkyan +1 212-723-1051 5/11/2026 $0.53/lb as of 1:50pm ET July 6, Global Commodities - Sugar outlook is bullish amid

$0.19/lb in 12 months. We initiate a call spread structure with Mar’27 expiry long call strike at 2026 energy, fertilizer prices and “strong” El Nino

$0.17/lb and short at $0.20/lb, with total cost of $0.6 (price May 11th at 11.15AM EST). We

expect almost 2x return on this trade with the target at $1.2, approximate timeline before year

end, and stop loss is at $0.30. Risks: One of risks to our view is level of sugarcane crush in

Brazil, which is expected to be one of the largest. While we expect that a good portion of

sucrose will be diverted to ethanol production, mills (with the right price incentives) could

produce more sugar than the market anticipates. The spread between domestic and

international prices could stay wide for some time, which could further depress ethanol prices.

Additionally, increased domestic production and higher stock levels in China could slow sugar

imports, which is another risk to our bullish price outlook.

Buy Aug-26 (05-Aug-2026 expiry) LME copper 15,250 digital call at 20% in $2mio notional. Charlie Massy-Collier +44-20-7986-2692 5/11/2026 -18.62% as of 7-Jul-26 10:17 UKT Global Macro Strategy - Buying Aug-26 Copper Digital

Risking $400k premium/0.4% of GMS PF. Aug-26 ref 13,880 as of 17:45 UKT on 11-May- Call

2026.