Home Price Monitor: Slow build

Research evidence excerpt

Home Price Monitor: Slow build

John Sim AC (1-212) 834-3124 Isabella Lee (1-212) 834-4148 North America Securitized J P M O R G A Njohn.sim@jpmorgan.com isabella.lee@jpmorgan.com Products Research

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Ani Gelashvili (1-212) 834-2605 07 July 2026

ani.gelashvili@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Home Price Monitor

Slow build

• CoreLogic HPI was up 1% YoY in May (from +0.9% in April); FHFA and Case-

Shiller indices follow with +2% and +0.8%, respectively, in April

• Looking at monthly changes, the CoreLogic HPI rose 0.5% MoM in May

• April seasonally adjusted home prices leaned negative. Chicago saw the highest 3m

HPA while Seattle saw the lowest

• Sun Belt and West Coast MSAs still stand out for much higher 3m/12m average

months of supply versus pre-pandemic levels, although the rate of months of sup-

ply increase has been slowing. Meanwhile, Seattle is seeing a larger recent increase

in months of supply

• We continue to see rising MoM HPA among the largest MSAs during this spring

season, led by Hartford and Indianapolis. East Coast and Midwest MSAs have

been seeing home price increases, whereas MSAs in the South and SunBelt are see-

ing muted home price growth

• Existing home sales and supply rose 9.6% MoM (nsa) and 3.3% MoM respectively

• Nominal residential construction spending and private residential construction

spending both increased in May by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively

Figure 1: J.P. Morgan model for Case-Shiller home price appreciation

Scenario FY2024 FY2025 2026 YTD 2026F 2027F

Bullish 3.7% 1.2% 1.8% 8.0% 9.0%

Positive 3.7% 1.2% 1.8% 5.0% 6.0%

Base 3.7% 1.2% 1.8% 0.0% 3.0%

Negative 3.7% 1.2% 1.8% -5.0% -6.0%

Crisis (GFC) 3.7% 1.2% 1.8% -9.9% -17.1%

Source: J.P. Morgan, CoreLogic, NAR, BLS.