J.P. Morgan Australia FTM 8 Jul 26: Spot Scenarios; Bellevue Gold and More. Tue Jul 07 2026

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan Australia FTM 8 Jul 26: Spot Scenarios; Bellevue Gold and More. Tue Jul 07 2026

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Australia First to Market 08 July 2026

Top Stories

Spot Scenarios (Lyndon Fagan)

Lithium/copper lead CY27 MtM EBITDA upgrades; Gold still MtM downgrades

We roll forward our Spot Scenarios date to CY27. Our key takeaways: 1) Platts spodumene has recovered to ~$2,400/t, which

sees PLS/MIN/IGO lead the coverage with 43%/34%/29% CY27 MtM EBITDA upgrades; we have Wodgina 3 trains at full

capacity during CY27. 2) Copper at ~$6.05/lb sees SFR/CSC with ~18% upgrades. 3) With Iron ore breaking below $100/t,

BHP/RIO CY27 MtM EBITDA upgrades are now 2%/7% (RIO helped by ally midwest premium/lithium), whilst FMG an 11%

MtM downgrade. 4) As Gold hovers at ~$4,100/oz, the entire coverage continues to screen with MtM downgrades between 4-

24%, albeit narrower than last edition. Our top picks are BHP, RIO, CSC, SFR, PLS, NEM, GMD, CMM, LYC.

Bellevue Gold (Jonathon Sharp) (BGL AU, OW)

FY26 guidance met; contractor transition the key near-term watchpoint; retain OW

Key takeaways: 1) JunQ production of 41.6koz was in line with JPMe 42.3koz, taking FY26 production to 144koz, in line with

JPMe and in the upper half of guidance of 130–150koz, 2) BGL indicated FY26 AISC guidance was achieved, with the final

AISC print to be released in the full quarterly later in July; our FY26 AISC is A$2,742/oz, though we see upside risk to this

estimate, and 3) the balance sheet improved, with cash and gold rising to A$206m and the hedge book reduced to 68.7koz

from 91.7koz, with no contractual deliveries until 30 June 2027. We make minor FY26 earnings changes, reduce 1QFY27

production to ~38koz from 43koz and FY27 production to 160koz from 165koz, and lift FY27 AISC to A$2,767/oz.