India Aviation Insights: The trade-off between airfares and traffic continues; 1Q is yet another "abnormal" quarter for IndiGo

Research evidence excerpt

India Aviation Insights: The trade-off between airfares and traffic continues; 1Q is yet another "abnormal" quarter for IndiGo

traditional international routes to the Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

Middle East and ASEAN continued to show strength for IndiGo. We estimate

that IndiGo’s international airfares nearly doubled YoY in 1QFY27. We

We thank Pratyush Ranjan and Harsh Raj believe this was due to urgent travel needs as routes were being canceled as well

as the additional surcharges on international routes. of the CIB Research Modernisation team

for their collaboration with us on this

• Domestic air traffic growth remains tepid: 1QFY27 domestic passenger project focused on alternative data

growth was 1.5% YoY on a base of 5.5%. Indigo’s domestic market share

insights.

improved 50bps YoY to 64.9% during April+May 2026. While Air India lost

170bps YoY (25.2%), Akasa gained 60bps to reach 5.8%.

In the sixth edition of our India Aviation

• International air traffic growth remains weak: International was a source Insights, we present insights from our of growth in FY26 (+6.5% YoY). 1QFY27 traffic declined 10% YoY and we

proprietary airfare pricing tracker, as well need to watch out for the trend in 2Q as travel restrictions to the Middle East

as high-frequency data published by the ease.

Ministry of Civil Aviation and the DGCA

• IndiGo 1QFY27 preview - yields and fuel inflation should offset each other (industry regulator).

for a break-even result: We forecast ASK growth at 3% (in line with

guidance) driven mainly by domestic traffic. We forecast yields to grow 17%

YoY /12% QoQ (in line with guidance). Fuel is a headwind and CASK-ex fuel- We analyze round-trip airfare data for

ex forex should also rise 8% YoY.