Commodity Market Positioning & Flows

Research evidence excerpt

Commodity Market Positioning & Flows

len@jpmorgan.com

was largely driven by the energy and agricultural markets. Net length in energy J.P. Morgan Securities plc

markets declined by $7 billion WoW, primarily driven by the decline across ICE Ali A. Ibrahim

Brent, where net length decreased from $35 billion to $30 billion over the week, (44-20) 3493-6438

followed by a $1.7 billion net shortening in TTF natural gas to $7.1 billion. Net ali.ibrahim@jpmorgan.com

length in agricultural markets declined by $2.3 billion WoW, driven by declines J.P. Morgan Securities plc

across soy (-$2.3 billion) and livestock markets (-$1.3 billion), though partially Aradhaya Makkar

offset by increases across coffee (+$0.8 billion) and sugar (+$0.5 billion) aradhaya.makkar@jpmchase.com

markets. Net length in precious metals increased by $4 billion WoW, led by gold J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

($3.5 billion WoW) and silver ($0.8 billion WoW), while net length in base Ananyashree Gupta

metals decreased by $4.2 billion WoW, driven by copper and aluminum. JPM (91-22) 6157 3627

ananyashree.gupta@jpmchase.com

QDS’s latest projections, as of July 6, indicate that positioning across J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

commodity markets is set to increase by $13 billion, largely driven by further

lengthening in gold (+$6 billion WoW), corn (+$2.3 billion WoW), soy (+$3.8

billion WoW), and coffee markets (+$1.6 billion WoW).

• The Global Commodities Inventory Monitor (GCIM) declined by 1% in June to

69 days-of-use. On an ex-China basis—which is a proxy for globally tradeable

inventories—the monitor also declined by 2% in June to 58 days-of-use. The

decline was largely driven by an estimated c. 100mn bbl decline in global oil

inventories in June (c. 62mn bbl in China). This was further accelerated by