MPLX LP: Thoughts into 2Q26: Seasonal Puts and Takes in Quiet Quarter

Research evidence excerpt

MPLX LP: Thoughts into 2Q26: Seasonal Puts and Takes in Quiet Quarter

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

07 July 2026

MPLX LP Neutral

MPLX, MPLX US

Thoughts into 2Q26: Seasonal Puts and Takes in Quiet Price (06 Jul 26):$56.97

Quarter ▲Price Target (Dec-26):$60.00 Prior (Dec-26):$58.00

After speaking with the partnership and marking to market commodity prices, we

model a $1,751mm 2Q26 EBITDA result, versus the prior $1,791mm JPMe and Head of North America Power,

Utilities, Midstream, LNG, and$1,777mm Street Median. On a QoQ basis, we note a non-recurring $10mm Winter

Nuclear

Storm Fern headwind in 1Q and seasonally higher project spend in 2Q (~$50mm).

Given MPLX’s largely hedged near-term portfolio (~80%), we expect a relatively Jeremy Tonet, CFA AC

muted NGL pricing uplift benefit. We model a $573mm Natgas and NGL Services (1-212) 622-4915

jeremy.b.tonet@jpmorgan.com

result, accounting for seasonality and Secretariat ramp (April in-service, 9-12

North American Midstream

month ramp). In Crude Oil & Product Logistics, we model a $1,157mm result. We

continue to see a back-half weighted EBITDA step up given growth project Vrathan Reddy

contributions. Aside from Secretariat ramp, Harmon Creek will enter service in (1-212) 622-4692

vrathan.reddy@jpmchase.com

3QQ26 and Northwind’s Titan gas treating complex will expand to 400mmcfd in

Eli Jossen, CFA

4Q26. On the pipeline side, Bay Runner will enter service in 3Q26, while

(1-212) 622-4113

Blackcomb and BANGL’s expansion to 300mbpd remain on track for 4Q26 ISD. eli.jossen@jpmchase.com

On the call, we look for additional organic or inorganic growth opportunities, Francina Kolluri

producer activity discussions, and LPG export commercial discussions. (1-212) 270-5796

francina.kolluri@jpmchase.com

J.P.