European Natural Gas: Demand & Storage Tracker: Lower temperatures temper gas burns

Research evidence excerpt

European Natural Gas: Demand & Storage Tracker: Lower temperatures temper gas burns

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

07 July 2026

European Natural Gas: Demand &

Storage Tracker

Lower temperatures temper gas burns

Demand declines on lower burns... Global Commodities Research

Otar Dgebuadze, CFA

• For the week of June 29 - July 5, total natural gas demand in NWE+UK (44-20) 3493-8246

averaged 310 Mcm/day, 5% lower WoW and 1% lower than the same period otar.dgebuadze@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

last year, driven by lower non-residential demand as temperatures, overall

Aradhaya Makkar

power load and gas burns declined, while wind generation recovered.

aradhaya.makkar@jpmchase.com

• Temperatures moderated markedly across the region last week, with CDDs J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

falling to 4 from 14 the prior week. For the current week, however, CDDs are

expected to rise again, averaging around 9-10. Overall, European weather

forecasts have shifted marginally cooler over the past week. July is now

projected to average about 285 CDDs (vs. 352 CDDs last week), which would

still make it the hottest July since 2018. August also saw a substantial

downgrade, with projected CDDs reduced from 280 to 205. Even so, total

summer CDDs (June–August) are still tracking as the hottest on record (since

at least 1973).

• At the country level, demand declined the most in the UK, where non-

residential use dropped by 15 Mcm/day (-32%) WoW, followed by other

countries on the continent, while demand in Germany increased by 6 Mcm/day,

supported by higher residential sector.

• Preliminary numbers for June indicate demand averaging 331 Mcm/day, 9%

higher YoY and 10 Mcm/day higher compared to our forecasts solely driven by