Positive Profit Warning. Guidance Upgrade. Express +30% Beat.

Research evidence excerpt

Positive Profit Warning. Guidance Upgrade. Express +30% Beat.

Update

July 7, 2026 03:13 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MDHL Group | Europe Cedar Ekblom, CFA

Equity Analyst

Positive Profit Warning. Cedar.Ekblom@morganstanley.comPeter Ajose-Adeogun +44 20 7425-4623

Peter.Ajose-Adeogun@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1618

Guidance Upgrade. Express

DHL Group (DHLn.DE, DHL GY)

Transport | Germany+30% Beat.

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

Price target €50.00

Reaction to earnings Shr price, close (Jul 6, 2026) €55.72

52-Week Range €56.42-36.99

Unchanged Meaningful upside Modest revision higher Mkt cap, curr (mn) €63,183

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* €24,258

consensus EPS

EV, curr (mn)* €87,693

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Key Takeaways

FY26 Group EBIT guidance raised to >€6.5bn from >€6.2bn. Q2 EBIT beat

consensus by 19%, +14% vs. MSe. Consensus FY26e EBIT €6.522bn (VA)

Q2 Group EBIT rose ~29% y/y to ~€1.85bn, 19% vs. VA consensus, with revenue

growth of >10% y/y.

Express EBIT of ~€1.2bn was the standout (up 63% y/y and +31% vs consensus).

Helped by weight growth, cost actions, and €150mn of air freight capacity

benefits.

Upgraded EBIT outlook driven by DHL divisions; increased to >€5.9bn from >

€5.6bn; Post & Parcel Germany remains unchanged at >€900mn.

We expected a beat (see here), but this result is still ahead of our expectations. We

expect this to set the tone for the sector during Q2 reporting. DSV and KNIN still to

report. Note Maersk has also profit warned to the upside this quarter already.

1H vs. 2H growth implied, and scope for upgrades. H1 EBIT is up 19% YoY. Current

H2 consensus EBIT growth is 6% YoY.