2Q26 previews: Disruption Boost

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 previews: Disruption Boost

IdeaMearnings expectations. Rather we think it reflects an expectation that KNIN will

detail AI-linked productivity targets with Q2 results (see: AI Adoption - A

conversation with the Chief AI and Innovation Officer). Mse Q2 EBIT +2% vs.

consensus; we expect guidance to be upgraded but, with shares already trading

above the historical trading range (19x FY26e EV/EBIT vs. 10 year average of 17x), we

think the upside risks are reflected. We see the key mid-term debate as less the AI

opportunity, and more the potential retention. See: Transport: Freight Expectations:

AI Margin Expansion vs. Reset (23 Mar 2026).

Maersk: Shares +32% LTM but flat in the last 3 months, despite a 77% rally in SCFI

(Shanghai Containerised Freight Index) over the same period. We see the rate upside

as temporary, but the supply/demand overhang as structural. Ocean rates were

boosted in H1 by disruption and seasonality. We expect a guidance upgrade but note

this would be backward-looking. We see rates falling in 2H on increasing oversupply,

orders and relative normalisation in routes.

Disruption. Demand. PMIs point to a better 2H demand setup, with global new

orders at 52.8. PMIs suggest a modest restock in the North American market

underway, little restocking signal in Europe. Supplier delivery times have lengthened

sharply in both the US and Europe, with PMIs moving well below 50 and signalling

renewed supply-chain tightness. We expect higher yields for the forwarders as a

result.

Exhibit 1: Supplier delivery times have lengthened sharply. Signalling renewed

supply-chain tightness.

Source: Haver Analytics, S&P Global

Air Freight: conditions have improved materially vs. Q1, but momentum is now