Transportation & Logistics: LMI June Update: More Signs of Pull-Forward Emerge, Transportation Metrics Remain Robust

Research evidence excerpt

Transportation & Logistics: LMI June Update: More Signs of Pull-Forward Emerge, Transportation Metrics Remain Robust

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

07 July 2026

Transportation & Logistics

LMI June Update: More Signs of Pull-Forward Emerge,

Transportation Metrics Remain Robust

The Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) accelerated to its fastest rate of expansion Airfreight & Surface Transportation /

in over three years, driven by a re-stocking of inventory alongside continued Shipping

strength across the Transportation metrics. After remaining lean for most of 2026, Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC

inventory levels have climbed into robust expansion, with signs that retailers are (1-212) 622-1023

importing goods ahead of potential late-July tariffs and to meet resilient consumer brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com

demand into back-to-school and peak season. This pull-forward aligns with recent Grady Carr

import trends, as June imports came in +8.2% YoY and outperformed normal (1-212) 622-1251

seasonality by +45bps, which follows +385bps of outperformance in May. The grady.carr@jpmchase.com

“Freight Cycle Indicator” remains bullish with Transportation Prices continuing to Brandon Wexler

(1-212) 622-1956

broadly rise despite easing fuel costs while Transportation Capacity contracted for brandon.wexler@jpmchase.com

the seventh straight month. Overall, we view the report as neutral for freight J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

fundamentals, as the Future/Current Inventory gap widened meaningfully from

last month, signaling expectations for continued re-stocking over the next 12

months. However, the significant jump in Inventory Levels confirms yet another

pull-forward, which increases the risk of slower freight activity in 2H26.

• Logistics Managers’ Index 101.