Gibson Energy Inc.: Thoughts Into 2Q26: Ratable Results Despite Export Volatility; Await Growth Backlog Update

Research evidence excerpt

Gibson Energy Inc.: Thoughts Into 2Q26: Ratable Results Despite Export Volatility; Await Growth Backlog Update

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

07 July 2026

Gibson Energy Inc. Underweight

GEI.TO, GEI CN

Thoughts Into 2Q26: Ratable Results Despite Export Price (06 Jul 26):C$28.84

Volatility; Await Growth Backlog Update ▲Price Target (Dec-27):C$29.00 Prior (Dec-26):C$28.00

After touching base with the company, we model 2Q26 adj EBITDA of $158mm,

versus a $156/155mm Street median/prior JPMe. Our forecast reflects a partial Head of North America Power,

Utilities, Midstream, LNG, andChauvin contribution ($9mm for two months) alongside an otherwise ratable

Nuclear

Infrastructure segment contribution. On Gateway, export volumes remain volatile,

with the team flagging a range of ~600–900mbpd through the quarter. While the Jeremy Tonet, CFA AC

swing creates noise, most volumes fall within existing MVC windows, limiting (1-212) 622-4915

jeremy.b.tonet@jpmorgan.com

direct revenue upside and keeping the net impact manageable. On Marketing,

Francina Kolluri

management signaled a better-than-trough environment, with crude oil marketing

(1-212) 270-5796

positioned to capitalize on elevated volatility and refined products benefiting from francina.kolluri@jpmchase.com

crack spreads at multi-year highs. We see the midpoint of $0–10mm/quarter guide Vrathan Reddy

as appropriate, and forecast $6mm for the quarter. On capital allocation, (1-212) 622-4692

management prioritizes balance sheet de-leveraging toward the sub-4x target vrathan.reddy@jpmchase.com

before activating buybacks, with the program described as back-half weighted Eli Jossen, CFA

over the five-year plan. On the call, we expect airtime on Chauvin integration (1-212) 622-4113