Container Shipping: 2026 Mid-Year Demand-Supply update

Research evidence excerpt

Container Shipping: 2026 Mid-Year Demand-Supply update

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

07 July 2026

Container Shipping

2026 Mid-Year Demand-Supply update

Following our recent sector report on container shipping, where we upgraded our European Transport & Logistics

AC2026 estimates for the container shipping lines given an observed acceleration in Alexia Dogani

demand in May/June, we show in this report our supply-demand expectations for (44-20) 3493-3791

the remainder of 2026 and our outlook for 2027 and 2028, where we expect the alexia.dogani@jpmorgan.com

industry to tip back into material EBIT losses and FCF burn, driven by our cautious J.P. Morgan Securities plc

view for container spot rates from here. Despite the recent short-term surge in Harry J Gowers

freight rates, we remain negative on the earnings outlook for the container shipping (44-20) 7134-7522

harry.gowers@jpmorgan.com

lines given the material downside risk to consensus estimates as we expect J.P. Morgan Securities plc

container spot rates to revert to the pre-pandemic average of $1,000/ TEU (SCFI),

Shikha Khurana

absent any further disruptive geopolitical events, leading to significant EBIT (91-22) 6157-5022

losses and FCF burn not fully reflected in market expectations. The supply outlook shikha.khurana@jpmchase.com

for 2027 looks troubling up 16% y/y, as Red Sea voyages return and deliveries J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

accelerate. Given this context, we do not see any structural reason why rates will Bhavpreet S Batra

not continue to meaningfully rebase given the negative demand-supply spread we (91-22) 6157-5046

expect. bhavpreet.batra@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

• Demand. YTD ocean freight volumes have increased by c. 5% y/y