CEEMEA Economics & Strategy Daily: Hormuz deal fragility, HU No risks to budget financing, CZ CNB Outlook

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CEEMEA Economics & Strategy Daily: Hormuz deal fragility, HU No risks to budget financing, CZ CNB Outlook

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07 Jul 2026 07:47:26 ET │ 22 pages

CEEMEA Economics & Strategy Daily

Hormuz deal fragility, HU No risks to budget financing, CZ CNB Outlook

CITI'S TAKE

Luis E Costa, CFA AC

The Hormuz deal remains fragile. +44-20-7986-9757

luis.costa@citi.com

Global Macro – This morning, a laden liquefied natural gas carrier was struck by a AC Alexander Rozhetskinprojectile near the Omani coast as it exited the Strait of Hormuz, heightening

concerns among shipowners and testing the fragile US-Iran agreement designed to +44-20-7508-4787

prevent such attacks in the critical waterway. The incident underscores the alexander.rozhetskin@citi.com

vulnerability of the Hormuz deal, with any full re-escalation threatening to disrupt AC Bhumika Guptaregional trade and tourism. European gas prices surged as much as 6% on the news,

while Brent crude futures also ticked higher. This comes as oil prices have plunged in +44-20-7986-5933

recent days amid concerns that increased vessel traffic through the strait could lead bhumika1.gupta@citi.com

to market oversupply. Despite the attack, other traffic continued to flow through the AC Nikola Apostolovstrait along Iran-approved routes. While vessel transits have improved since the

agreement was reached, challenges and interruptions persist. Iran periodically +44-20-7986-6499

blocks ships on unapproved routes or launches attacks on vessels, creating ongoing nikola.apostolov@citi.com

uncertainty for maritime operators navigating these strategic waters. AC Katie Kironde

Kenya — As the new finance year starts and Kenya approaches elections, we refresh +44-20-7986-3315