JPM TECH SKETCH: SPCX Initiate at OW $225 PT – The Next Frontier, META Says States Want $1.4T, AAPL Price Elasticity

Research evidence excerpt

JPM TECH SKETCH: SPCX Initiate at OW $225 PT – The Next Frontier, META Says States Want $1.4T, AAPL Price Elasticity

aching ~8.9 GW by the end of 2029. Beyond 2029, we expect SpaceX to pivot to orbital compute for

incremental capacity additions, while continuing to operate and maintain its terrestrial compute clusters. For context, we

estimate SpaceX’s share of U.S. terrestrial data center capacity will increase from ~4.3% in 2026 to ~10.0% by 2028, based

on our JPM Data Center Industry Model (Richard Choe). While that remains a relatively small portion of overall domestic

compute capacity, SpaceX’s estimated share of incremental domestic capacity additions is more meaningful, rising from ~10.6%

in 2026 to 21.3% by 2028. More importantly, we see SpaceX delivering high-density compute and continually optimizing its

builds to support the latest AI compute technologies.”

Orbital Compute: “We expect SpaceX to begin launching its first operational AI satellites in 2028, with 0.4 GW of

nameplate compute online by the end of the year. We model an incremental 8.0 GW added in 2029, 18.5 GW in 2030, and 48.2

GW in 2031. By the end of 2031, we expect SpaceX to have completed over 7,000 launches and have 75.1 GW of compute

capacity in orbit. Ultimately, the amount of capacity deployed will rely on Starship reaching rapid reusability, which is the enabler

for orbital compute deployment to become cheaper than terrestrial builds. Orbital AI compute capacity is forecast to enable AI

Solutions & Infrastructure revenue growth from $98b in 2028 to $171b in 2029, $305b in 2030, and $692b in 2031.”

Grok + Cursor: “We model Grok revenue going from $4.3b in 2026 to $7.9b in 2027 and $69.9b in 2028, driven by a step up

in $/W due to better enterprise AI monetization (partly driven by Cursor).