China monthly data outlook: Production resilient, demand awaits fiscal execution

Research evidence excerpt

China monthly data outlook: Production resilient, demand awaits fiscal execution

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research

07 July 2026

China monthly data outlook

Production resilient, demand awaits fiscal execution

We expect some stabilization in June data after the April–May soft patch, but the Emerging Markets Asia, Economic

recovery remains narrow and externally supported. PMIs improved modestly, and Policy Research

exports remain helped by high-tech and AI-related demand, and lower oil prices Feng Zhu

eased cost pressure. Domestic demand weakened further: May retail sales fell (852) 2800 1745

0.6%oya, FAI contracted 10.7%oya, infrastructure FAI dropped 9.4%oya, and real feng.zhu@jpmorgan.com

estate FAI declined 24.3%oya. The near-term question is whether fiscal execution Tingting Ge

can turn available funding into activity before external demand becomes less (852) 2800-0143

reliable. PMIs point to a floor in industrial momentum, not a new upswing. tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com

Production and orders improved, but employment, inventories, and export orders Jiayi Li

(852) 2800-5229

remain mixed, with little evidence of a broader restocking, hiring, or capex cycle. jiayi.c.li@jpmorgan.com

Lower input prices ease near-term margin pressure, but weak downstream demand

Tongfang Yuan

still caps pricing power. (852) 2800-0085

tongfang.yuan@jpmorgan.com

The recovery is still two-speed. Manufacturing competitiveness, trade rerouting, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch

and the global IP/AI cycle continue to support exports and high-tech production.

High-tech manufacturing rose 15.1%oya in May and contributed nearly 40% of

industrial growth in January–May. But strength remains concentrated in