No news from MSCI on Türkiye is no news: Chance of Türkiye being demoted is still small

Research evidence excerpt

No news from MSCI on Türkiye is no news: Chance of Türkiye being demoted is still small

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

07 July 2026

No news from MSCI on Türkiye is

no news

Chance of Türkiye being demoted is still small

MSCI announced last night that it would maintain a series of measures for CEEMEA & South Africa Equity

Indonesian securities (freeze on the share count, free float, no index additions and Strategy

no promotions from small cap to standard) and noted that it was still assessing David Aserkoff, CFA AC

Turkish securities case-by-case and may review the float but would (44-20) 7134-5887

communicate such changes in advance of implementation–this is a status quo david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com

announcement for MSCI Türkiye. Most EM investors are paying close attention J.P. Morgan Securities plc

to the Indonesia issues and we have received the occasional query on Türkiye. As Inga Q Galeni AC

we wrote in June, in CEEMEA Strategy (excerpt below), we think the chance that (27-11) 507-0335

inga.galeni@jpmorgan.com

this issue changes Turkiye’s EM status is incredibly low. MSCI reiterated that J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa (Pty) Ltd.

it would update investors ahead of the November index review.

Türkiye will be front-and-centre of investors’ minds as it hosts the NATO

summit this week. We are N on MSCI Türkiye in the CEEMEA context; we prefer

South Africa, another non-MENA market that should be boosted by the solid

performance of EM FX carry and falling oil prices. We are also OW Poland and

Greece. MSCI Türkiye is CEEMEA’s cheapest market on 6.8x 12m fwd PE, but

we think it would only re-rate sharply if investors believed in the “two-tens” – that

Türkiye would approach 10 percent CPI and 10 percent policy rates, but we think