EM FX Daily Report - 7th July 2026. Tue Jul 07 2026

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX Daily Report - 7th July 2026. Tue Jul 07 2026

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 07 July 2026

EM FX

RUB Quiet start to the week in usd/rub with most of the action going on close to 78.00. There was a

sharp drop to 77.00 late in the day onshore which didn't appear to be the result of any

discernible headline, but will need to see where spot opens this morning to understand whether

it's a genuine move or just an air pocket in poor liquidity. Pretty tactical here at the moment but

probably prefer to pick up dollars on dips.

ZAR It was a quiet start to the week, with DXY finishing the session mostly unchanged. In

USDZAR, we continued to see better supply in the pair—this time from systematic accounts—

with the market still generally looking to be long high-carry EM currencies versus low-yielding

G10. The view on ZAR and South Africa remains constructive, but I’m not sure the pair can get

back to the February lows unless we see a broader USD sell-off. As such, I’ve reduced

exposure in ZAR and will look to re-add on any material weakness.

TRY Price action in TRY remains sticky close to state bank offers currently around 46.8400. We

continued to see better supply from clients yesterday adding to long TRY positions yesterday.

While some market participants were hoping for a softer number for June CPI on Friday, we

think the CBT is likely to interpret the print constructively, and we expect effective funding

rates to be lowered back toward 37% at the 23 July meeting. USDTRY price action remains in

line with the expected depreciation path. Seasonally better current-account dynamics should