INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JULY 7, 2026

20 SECONDS:

- Tech weakness/MOMO unwind extends with Samsung’s record profits offering little respite to the AI

trade. KOSPI’s drop triggered a circuit-breaker suspension

- Final June PMIs support our view that global macro regime should stay in recovery/expansion.

June Composite PMI rose to 52 – consistent with an above-trend 2.7%ar GDP gain.

- EA macro momentum continues to improve, following yesterday’s strong German Industrial Orders

& EA Sentix Survey. Overall European positioning remains subdued, currently in the 33rd %-tile

versus the last 10 years of data.

- The debate around Hyperscalers vs Semis/Capex Beneficiaries/AI Bottlenecks will be key this

earnings season. The latest WSTS semiconductor industry data shows industry sales growth

accelerated to +119% Y/Y, with memory pricing improving materially again.

- Today we are watching the NATO Summit (EU Defence best thematic basket yesterday) and Le Pen

ruling (no implications to markets but relevant for French politics).

- JPM Research: A Macro & Systematic Guide to FX Seasonality: note looks at notable G10 FX

seasonality patterns and their known or suspected macro driver and presents a systematic

approach to constructing seasonality signals

MKT INTEL VIEWS: Theme of Tech weakness/MOMO unwind extends (US bucked the trend yesterday,

though MOMO gains faded into close), with Samsung’s record profits offering little respite to the AI trade –

KOSPI’s drop triggered a circuit-breaker suspension, with foreign net selling accelerating. Price action points

to risks going into Q2 reporting, with very elevated earnings expectations – especially in Tech. Elsewhere,

Energy prices higher after Qatari LNG ship struck in SoH.