Aspen: More to come as long-awaited earnings drivers heave into view – OW

Research evidence excerpt

Aspen: More to come as long-awaited earnings drivers heave into view – OW

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Equity Research

07 July 2026

Aspen Overweight

APNJ.J, APN SJ

More to come as long-awaited earnings drivers heave Price (06 Jul 26):15,650c

into view – OW ▲Price Target (Jun-28):18,100c Prior (Jun-27):14,400c

Aspen’s share price has performed well, up a third since mid-February, and while

the valuation is looking fuller (2027E EV/EBITDA 7.7x vs 6.0x in Feb) on balance CEEMEA Chemicals and Healthcare

we continue to think there is room for further upside given a number of previously Alex Comer AC

identified catalysts/ earnings drivers are likely to impact the business over the next (44-20) 7134-5945

12-36months: 1) Novo Nordisk’s insulin ramp-up; 2) ongoing strong SA Mounjaro alex.r.comer@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

sales with upside from launches in the rest of Africa and in time Lilly's oral,

Orforglipron; 3) Gavi approval of the Rota and PCV pediatric vaccines for use in

Africa (should trigger milestone payments from the Gates Foundation) and Key Changes (FYE Jun)

hopefully over time significant sales; 4) launch of generic Ozempic (note Dr Prev Cur Δ

Reddy’s, Aspen’s partner in ~65 countries, has already launched in India, Canada Adj. EPS - 26E (c) 1,240.12 840.12 -32.3%

with Brazil with a further ~80 other countries targeted); and 5) with a de-geared

balance sheet, Aspen has the potential to launch a share buyback and/or make Style Exposure

further acquisitions. The impact of these potential opportunities is difficult to

quantify, nor should it be forgotten that Aspen has a track record of disappointing

expectations. However, given little appears to be priced in (Aspen currently trades

on FY 2027/28E EV/EBITDA of 7.7x/6.5x, cf five-year average of 9.8x and its