Nomura Global Autos Monthly

Research evidence excerpt

Nomura Global Autos Monthly

Global Markets Research

6 July 2026Nomura Global Autos Monthly

EQUITY: GLOBAL AUTOS & AUTO PARTS

Global auto sales remain resilient in May Research Analysts

Americas Autos & Auto Parts

USMCA uncertainty and slower US EV adoption favor Anindya Das - NSC

adas@nomura.comdiversified, well-capitalized OEMs

+81 3 6703 1164

May auto sales: ex-China/Russia momentum continues

Global auto sales across the 18 markets we track rose 2% y-y by volume in May, in line

with April’s growth rate. Excluding China and Russia, sales increased 4% y-y, led by

India, where volumes excluding commercial vehicles rose 25% y-y for a second

consecutive month, and Brazil, where volumes rose 22% y-y. Global sales ex-China and

Russia have now grown in both months of 2Q26.

India has posted double-digit y-y monthly sales growth since October 2025. The

September 2025 GST cuts triggered a sales rebound after several weak months, while

subsequent government policy support and large OEM promotions for EVs after the Iran

war further bolstered demand. Consumer concerns about future price hikes amid inflation

likely also pulled purchases forward, boosting recent monthly volumes. Looking ahead,

elevated prices, the potential impact of below-average rainfall from a strong El Niño, and

the anniversary of the September 2025 GST cuts could make 2H26 more challenging for

India’s auto sales growth.

In Brazil, strong y-y growth was driven by demand for hybrids and EVs, supported by

aggressive pricing from Chinese automakers such as BYD. Imported vehicles accounted

for roughly one-third of the light-vehicle market’s y-y monthly gains.

Diversified US footprints and strong balance sheets should help OEMs navigate

USMCA fracture