Japan: Current status of alternative crude oil and naphtha procurement: Bypass of Strait of Hormuz, increase in alternative procurement from US and Europe

Research evidence excerpt

Japan: Current status of alternative crude oil and naphtha procurement: Bypass of Strait of Hormuz, increase in alternative procurement from US and Europe

Nomura | Japan: Current status of alternative crude oil and naphtha procurement 6 July 2026

• Japan’s crude oil and naphtha imports improved in May after falling sharply in Mar–

Apr 2026. This increase in imports is likely to continue due to alternative procurement

from regions outside the Middle East.

• Domestic naphtha inventories resumed growth in May and supply constraints are

easing from the standpoint of volume. Production plans in related industries are also

solid. However, we note the risk that supply imbalances and logistics bottlenecks

could limit future production activity.

• Maintaining the high level of crude oil exports from the US to Japan requires an

increase in crude oil production in the US. Crude oil prices are below the production

break-even point after a recent decline, and we note the risk that this could limit new

crude oil drilling in the US and crude oil exports to Japan.

1. Current status

Q1. Crude oil import recovery rate? Alternative procurement sources?

According to MOF trade data, real crude oil and raw oil imports (adjusted for inflation and

seasonal variation by Nomura) fell sharply from March 2026 and decreased to about 30%

of the 2025 average in April, but recovered to over 40% in May (Figure1). Trends in

crude oil imports (weight basis) by import source country and region show an increase in

the share of imports from United Arab Emirates (UAE), the US, Russia, Oman, and

Azerbaijan from March to May (Figure2). In addition to establishing alternative routes

bypassing the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East, it appears there was also progress in