Eli Lilly & Company: 2Q26 Earnings Preview – Potential Upside from Mounjaro Intl and Growth in US Obesity Market

Research evidence excerpt

Eli Lilly & Company: 2Q26 Earnings Preview – Potential Upside from Mounjaro Intl and Growth in US Obesity Market

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

07 July 2026

Eli Lilly & Company Overweight

LLY, LLY US

2Q26 Earnings Preview – Potential Upside from Price (06 Jul 26):$1,200.06

Mounjaro Intl and Growth in US Obesity Market ▲Price Target (Dec-26):$1,400.00 Prior (Dec-26):$1,300.00

Heading into LLY’s 2Q results (August 5), our estimates are above consensus and

we see strong results based on the continued ramp of Mounjaro internationally and Pharmaceuticals — Major &

Specialtyhealthy growth in the US obesity market. For the qtr, we estimate total sales of

$20.7bn (~$300mm above cons) and EPS of $8.85 (+$0.13). For the year, our Chris Schott, CFA AC

estimates are at the high end of LLY’s 2026 guidance with sales of $85.0bn (vs (1-212) 622-5676

christopher.t.schott@jpmorgan.com

$82-$85bn guide, inline with cons) and EPS of $36.60 (vs $35.50 - $37.00 guide).

This is driven by the ramp of the intl obesity business as well as the uptake of Hardik Parikh, CFA

(1 212) 622-2875

Zepbound in Medicare and we would not be surprised to see LLY again raise its hardik.k.parikh@jpmorgan.com

2026 sales/EPS guidance.

Ethan Brown

(1-212) 622-4928

More broadly on the story, LLY remains our top pick with further upside to Street ethan.brown@jpmchase.com

numbers over the next several years (especially ex-US) as well as a series of Taylor Hanley

upcoming catalysts which we expect will extend LLY’s leadership position in the (1-212) 622-0790

$200bn+ incretin market. On clinical catalysts, we see data from the elora + taylor.hanley@jpmchase.com

tirzepatide as most impactful (EASD in late Sept) where abstract data suggests very Ekaterina V Knyazkova, CFA