The Catalyst Path Ahead

Research evidence excerpt

The Catalyst Path Ahead

IdeaMtools. We think the market is looking for updated commentary on capacity

expansion plans - either on the main call or on the NDR circuit - with potential that

management could outline a roadmap to meeting growing demand.

(ii) 2028 WFE. We expect demand from China memory makers such as CXMT and

YMTC to hit the order book before the end of FY26 with shipments to grow from

FY27. We think this gives scope for upside to our DUV numbers. Looking to '27 and

'28 we note with interest the Huawei and SMIC announcement of the use of chip

folding (form of Tau scaling). This is suggestive of DUV intensity and gives us reason

to believe that FY28 could be a growth year for China sales.

(iii) Future pricing power could drive margins higher. The acceleration of the

ASML roadmap for EUV laser power could offer better pricing power for the

company in time. We see the EUV story becoming less about throughput gain and

more about maximising productivity. Allied to this is the possibility of broadening

foundry partnerships. Market interest in ASML's expanding partnerships is clear.

We flag that the development of new foundries such as Terafab could create

opportunities for new price negotiations. In turn we think pricing could be a part of

the gross margin expansion through to the end of the decade.

Raising our EUV estimates. We lift our FY26 and FY27 estimates to 75 and 92

respectively, prior 69 and 90, as we gain greater confidence in the near term

roadmap of key customers. In particular we see SK Hynix as a more material

component of EUV sales, ramping from our estimate of 3 tools last quarter to 6 this

quarter. In turn we see sales this quarter coming in at €9bn (prior €8.3bn) and FY26

sales at €39.4bn (prior €37.7bn).