Margin upside earlier than expected

Research evidence excerpt

Margin upside earlier than expected

IdeaMc.130 units in 2026. This appears aligned with the Low-NA EUV expansion and

suggests sell-side immersion estimates likely need to rise in tandem with EUV. As

such, we expect the stronger H2 sales momentum to extend into 2027 and 2028.

Margin upside arrives earlier than expected. Gross margins are moving into the

c.55% range a year earlier than we had expected, reinforcing our view that ASML’s

medium-term story is increasingly one of margin expansion. Volume growth and mix

are both contributing into H2, including a higher incidence of IBM, and we see scope

for similar dynamics to support at least this level in 2027. High-NA adoption could

introduce some mix headwinds into 2028, particularly as Intel uses the technology

at 18A and DRAM adoption potentially begins in 2028-29. Even so, we would expect

margins to plateau rather than pull back meaningfully, given the broader earnings

momentum.

The summer debates. As previewed, we expect investors to weigh up three debates

over the summer. This revolves around (i) pricing power for ASML as constraints

continue in the face of high demand, (ii) the speed and nature of capacity increases

(including those at key suppliers), and (iii) the likelihood of stronger mid-to-long

term growth in China (2027+). But in addition, we think the market may also

debate, first, the sustainability of order momentum: the key question is whether the

current strength reflects a true multi-year AI-driven capex cycle or some element of

pull-forward ahead of capacity constraints. Second, the earnings power of the

capacity ramp: investors will focus on how quickly higher Low-NA EUV and

immersion capacity translates into revenue, mix and margin upside. And third, the