ASML NDR signals long term growth drivers

Research evidence excerpt

ASML NDR signals long term growth drivers

IdeaMdelivered to customers. ASML framed value-based pricing not as capacity scarcity

but as what customers view as reasonable value capture today given AI’s emergence

as a structural growth driver. Management said pricing discussions have picked up

over the last 3-6 months, describing them as constructive and ongoing. A key

investor focus was whether pricing has materially contributed this year. However,

our understanding is that this is an important medium-term margin driver as order

lead times work through the backlog.

Unpacking margin upside. Margin improvement dominated discussion given the

magnitude of the gross margin beat and raise. Management attributed gross margin

improvement to two factors: (i) higher production volumes, and (ii) a more

favourable product mix. The higher-margin IBM segment is growing as a share of

total revenue. ASML continue to expect strong Installed Base Management (IBM)

sales, noting EUV service margins are also improving. Elsewhere, while immersion

and low NA are supportive, the more meaningful driver is the continued maturity of

production of higher ASP EUV systems, including the EXE:3800E, now shipping in

volume.

Strengthening demand visibility. ASML emphasised that demand is growing at

both DRAM and leading-edge logic/foundry customers, with improving litho

intensity supporting sustained demand, especially in DRAM. Management said some

customers have begun providing forecasts into 2029/30 alongside strong

contractual commitments for 2028. While DRAM investment has strengthened

materially, it was noticeable that logic has kept pace, driven by growing demand

from TSMC and others. New entrants such as Terafab still generate intrigue