India cement: 1QFY27F preview

Research evidence excerpt

India cement: 1QFY27F preview

Global Markets Research

7 July 2026India cement: 1QFY27F preview

EQUITY: CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

Escalated cost to result in EBITDA/t decline sequentially Research Analysts

India Construction Materials

Unitary EBITDA likely to decline on an average by Jashandeep Singh Chadha - NFASL

jashandeep.singhchadha@nomura.comINR50/t sequentially in 1QFY27F

+91 22 40374124

We expect the India cement industry to report 6-7% y-y organic volume growth in

1QFY27F. Within our coverage universe, we expect Shree Cement (SRCM IN, Buy) to

record the highest volume growth, up 15% y-y. According to our checks with cement

dealers, trade prices improved 3% q-q in 1QFY27 at INR326/bag. However, the West

and North regions recorded relatively better cement pricing during the quarter compared

with the rest of India. On the cost front, we expect escalated fuel and packaging cost to

more than offset any benefit of cement price improvement in 1QFY27F. As a result, we

estimate operating cost/t to have risen 4% q-q for the cement companies under our

coverage. We forecast 1QFY27F EBITDA/t to decline by an average of INR50/t

sequentially across our coverage universe, except for Ambuja Cement (ACEM IN, Buy),

which we estimate should report a sequential EBITDA/t improvement in 1QFY27F.

Volume growth picked up towards quarter-end, resulting in 6-7% y-y organic

growth in 1Q

In the India cement industry, 1Q is generally a ‘price push’ quarter, when dealers attempt

to push more price hikes than volumes. We expect the industry to report healthy 6-7%

y-y organic volume growth, slightly lower than 8% y-y in 1QFY26, while a few of the

stocks under our coverage might report higher-than-industry average volume growth,

supported by stronger regional growth.