Thailand: Headline inflation eases in June

Research evidence excerpt

Thailand: Headline inflation eases in June

Global Markets Research

6 July 2026Asia Insights

Economics - ASEAN/Asia ex-Japan

Research Analysts

Thailand: Headline inflation eases in June Asia Economics

Euben Paracuelles - NSL

• Headline inflation fell to a lower-than-expected 2.42% in June from 2.8% in May, euben.paracuelles@nomura.com

reflecting lower global oil prices. +65 6433 6956

Lattakit Lapudomkarn - NSL • Core inflation rose to 1.23% from 0.92%, driven by prepared food and medical and lattakit.lapudomkarn@nomura.com

personal care prices. We still see limited signs of second-round effects. +65 6433 6676

• We maintain our CPI inflation forecast of 1.5% and still expect the BOT to stay on hold

throughout 2026.

Headline inflation eases due to slowing oil prices

Headline CPI inflation fell to a lower-than-expected 2.42% y-o-y in June from 2.80% in

May (Consensus: 2.70%, Nomura: 2.55%). The decline in headline inflation mainly reflects

lower retail fuel prices, in line with the sharp decline in global crude oil prices after the US-

Iran deal (Figure 1). Food and beverage price inflation picked up slightly to 1.03% y-o-y

from 0.95%, supported by recent increases in rice, egg and sugar prices. Other food

components posted month-on-month declines, including meat and poultry, vegetables and

fruit, and seasoning and condiments. Overall, price pressures from food items remained

limited in comparison with the historical high oil price and El Niño periods.

Still-low core inflation signals weak underlying demand

Core inflation edged up to 1.23% y-o-y in June from 0.92% in May. The monthly pace of

core CPI remained higher than usual, mainly caused by prepared food prices (+0.4% m-o-

m; +3.0% y-o-y), likely reflecting increases in input costs. We observed a pickup in some